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FAST, CHEAP RIDE TO EARTH ORBIT NEW YORK -- At 32, Elon Musk has already launched two successful online startups. But it's on a rocket that his reputation may ultimately ride. On Thursday, Space Exploration Technologies, or SpaceX, unveiled its seven-story Falcon orbital launch vehicle in Washington, D.C., as part of the celebrations honoring the Wright brothers' flight 100 years ago this month. While dignitaries may wax poetic about the breakthrough at Kitty Hawk, another historic memory gnaws at Musk, the restless founder of Zip2 and co-founder of PayPal. He looks beyond the dark skies to outer space, acutely aware that this month also marks 31 years -- nearly his entire lifetime -- since the last man walked on the moon. The hefty price tag on rocket launches has profoundly limited space efforts, sidelining earlier visions of space colonies and manned exploration. "Every other aspect of technology has improved dramatically since then," he said. "We have to get costs down; otherwise we'll remain in this stalled position ever since the end of the Apollo moon landings. That's crazy. Our long-term goal is to do some good for human access to space. It's not necessarily the biggest business in the world, but it's a good business." Musk apparently knows a good business when he sees it. By selling his two startups (to Compaq and eBay) and making other investments, Musk amassed a fortune of $200 million. But Musk's bean counters might object that in his latest enterprise, Musk has been seduced by the lure of outer space adventure." Musk won't be hurling himself into the void anytime soon. While other enthusiasts chase the $10 million X Prize for sending a reusable manned vehicle to the edge of the atmosphere, Musk is pragmatically focused on launching small communications satellites and other light payloads into orbit. For this purpose, his kerosene- and oxygen-fired Falcon would be the only reusable rocket on the market, apart from the aging space shuttles. Though Musk hopes to put a human in orbit within five years -- and says he won't be the first passenger -- the first payload SpaceX will lift in the spring of 2004 is a Navy tactical satellite, TacSat 1. SpaceX also announced that a future model, the Falcon V, will carry medium-size payloads. The new generation of rockets, scheduled for completion in 2005, will allow SpaceX to perfect a more reliable launch system that can deliver goods into orbit even if three of its five engines fail. That new rocket would put the fledgling company head-to-head with established giants, carrying 4.5 tons to low orbit, or even reaching the space station and destinations in the inner solar system. "My understanding is that SpaceX will compete initially in the small-satellite market, where it would compete with Orbital Sciences in the U.S. and other competitors internationally, then on to the heavy-satellite market with a future launcher, where it would compete with Boeing's Delta and Lockheed Martin's Atlas in the U.S., as well as Arianespace, Krunichev and China Aerospace abroad," said Richard Coleman, president of the Space Transportation Association in Washington, D.C. Musk said SpaceX won't get lost in the crowd because it will be both cheaper and more reliable. "Right now a lot of rockets used to launch satellites are former missiles," he said. "The way the launches work, it's as if when you boarded a commercial jetliner you knew that should any of the engines fail, you'd crash and die. Would you get on board?" For now, people most frequently compare SpaceX to Orbital Sciences of Dulles, Virginia. Back in 1990 in the wake of the Challenger shuttle disaster, Orbital Sciences revolutionized the launch industry with its winged Pegasus rocket, also designed for small payloads. Perhaps more importantly, SpaceX promises to offer cheaper launches with set pricing -- no haggling. "Our prices will be below the Russians, and they will be fixed and open prices," he said. "We're trying to introduce plain dealing into this industry. A Falcon launch will cost $6 million, and a Falcon V launch will cost $12 million." That would put SpaceX costs at one quarter of the going rates. "They are probably doing it at one quarter of the price per pound to get into orbit, but the vehicle is probably not going to carry large communications satellites needed by the industry now," said David Cavossa, director of the Satellite Industry Association, a trade group representing the commercial satellite industry. "Nobody's really doing small commercial payloads, so I don't know what market SpaceX is aiming at. The launch industry is in the worst shape. It's the toughest time." The Satellite Industry Association and industry consultant Futron reported (PDF) that 2002 worldwide satellite launch revenues totaled $3.7 billion, with the U.S. market taking $1 billion of that. By comparison, 2000 revenues reached a high of $5.3 billion, with U.S. companies accounting for nearly half. Also, while world launch revenues climbed by $700 million in 2002 over 2001, in the United States they dipped by $100 million. The SIA and Futron said that prices had dropped in all nations, but the number of launches outside the United States increased substantially. Orders for commercial satellites have plummeted in the past year, Cavossa said, from 30 in 2001 to six in 2002. Musk said that a cheaper launch system will make its own market. "I expect demand to increase across the board," he said, noting that companies and universities frozen out of the market by high prices might leap at the chance to expand their business or research with an inexpensive rocket. Also, advances in electronics are shrinking the sizes of satellite components, meaning smaller payloads will accomplish the work of the large ones used today, Musk said. Automated laboratories could carry out work now slated for the shuttle or International Space Station, he said, but added, "We can take stuff up, but taking stuff back down is not part of our capabilities yet." One of the doomed shuttle Columbia's last experiments was performed for International Flavors & Fragrances, to see whether the scent of flowers might change if grown in zero gravity. While an orbiting, automated mini-lab couldn't offer a sniff test by a human nose, other means of detection might let a company know what chemical compounds are present, he said.
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